Rich Henderson's Diary
The First 180 Days

Rich's Diary: Predicting the Future

Week 34

Wouldn't it be great to be able to look into the future and see what is going to happen? You can plan according to what will happen, instead of what might happen. You can avoid all the mistakes that may lie ahead and replace them with the proper course of action. I know that some people are skilled at predicting the future and foretelling events yet to come. Professor Marvel was a master at it in the Wizard of Oz. How he knew that Dorothy needed to get home, I will never know. For the past several weeks, I have been trying my hand at predicting the future. This week, however, I found out that I am a lousy fortune-teller.

Since September, the fifth-grade team at Mitchell Elementary School has been planning an overnight field trip to Boston. As the year progressed and some students became more challenging in their behaviors, it became apparent to me -- or at least I thought -- that this trip was going to be a disaster. As the fifth graders prepared for the trip, I shared my predictions with my team members about how I thought the students would behave. That was my first attempt to see into the future. I thought my crystal ball was working perfectly and that I was right on target with this prediction. I now realize that I should have left the fortune-telling to the professionals. Why? My prediction was not even close to what actually happened. In fact, my prediction never came true.

Each of the 104 fifth graders was great on the trip! The students acted with a great deal of respect for themselves and others. For example, one of the four buses that we took broke down twice. The students on the disabled bus were quiet, calm, and attentive to the teachers' directions. The students on the other three buses were very concerned for those people on the broken-down bus and willing to give up their seats in order to make room for them. Their concern extended to offering extra snacks and drinks as well. At meal times at our hotel, there was no fighting to get into lines. Each student patiently waited for a turn at the buffet table and allowed the adults to eat first.

The students surprised me, and I could not have been any prouder of them. Thus, I decided to end my brief -- and somewhat unsuccessful -- career in fortune-telling. I did learn something, though. I learned that even if recent history indicates the probability of a certain performance, that action might never happen. Who knows how any of these fifth graders will act in any given circumstance? I certainly don't.

I have learned my lesson. I will stop making predictions of any kind. In fact, instead of forecasting the worst, I should hope for the best. I should set my level of expectations higher and watch my students reach for it. Therefore, I am returning my crystal ball with the understanding that I am not as good at predicting the future as Professor Marvel is. Now there was a master.

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Rich Henderson
Education World®
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